Sen. Joseph Robach, R-Greece, Monroe County, said yesterday that he has no plans to leave the GOP, and today Sen. John Bonacic of Orange County said he’s not going anywhere either.

“I’ve been a Republican all my life, and I don’t intend to change at this stage in my life,” Bonacic said.

Bonacic has been considered maybe the most likely Republican to switch parties if Democrats can move closer to taking control of the state Senate. Republicans hold a two-seat majority in the Senate,  going into today’s special election in the North Country.

Bonacic in late 2006 called for Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno to resign after Bruno revealed he was being investigated by the FBI.

The New York Post said Monday that Bonacic was being lobbied by Democrats to switch parties if Democrats can win tonight’s special election.

Asked if he is being wooed by Democrats, Bonacic responded, “Always.”

   Among the understood conventions about Albany is that Assembly Democrats, who always want to spend more than everyone else, always estimate that the state will have more money to spend than anyone else.

Estimating revenues is at its heart a guessing game – albeit educated guesses – so the assumption has always been that the estimates follow to some degree a political agenda. In the Assembly Democrats’ case, that has meant since they want to spend more, they need high  revenues estimates to pay for it.   It has been that way every year since 1991.

The normal pattern: the governor’s estimates are the lowest, since he actually has to worry about balancing spending and receipts, and knows that lawmakers will add to his number anyway. The Senate is usually in the middle – and usually end up closest to actual collections.

But this year, Assembly Democrats have broken the mold by being the most pessimistic about the state’s financial health.

“There’s a recession going on, and our numbers reflect that,’’ said Dan Weiller, a spokesman for Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, D-Manhattan. The Dems think Gov. Spitzer’s revenue estimate is $615 million too high, while Senate Republicans think it’s $100 million too low.

Lt. Gov. David Paterson got some laughs from college students today when he talked about why  the state Legislature, of which he was a veteran before joining the Spitzer administration, hasn’t passed a bottle bill that includes deposits on water bottles and other non-carbonated drinks.

“This is very simple but that would be if you were on a normal planet,” he told NYPIRG volunteers, getting smiles and chuckles from the crowd. “But you’re in Planet Albany, where sometimes there’s no gravity, sometimes there’s no atmosphere and most times there’s little thought.

“So before we discover whether there’s life on Mars or life on the moon, we have to find out if there’s life in Albany.”

NYPIRG was working the offices of state legislators in hopes of reviving failed legislation last year that would add water and juice bottles to the list of bottles that have 5-cent deposits so the bottles are more often recycled.

Senate Republicans and grocery stores have opposed the measure, in part because the state would get the revenue from the unreturned bottles, not the grocers who have to collect the bottles from consumers.

Here’s an email Democrat Darrel Aubertine just sent out to supporters encouraging them to vote today in the special election in the snowy 48th Senate District in northern New York.

He’s facing Republican Will Barclay, who Republicans around the Capitol today were expressing confidence will win the open seat and maintain the GOP’s two-seat majority.

“Dear Friends and Neighbors,
Today I ask for your help.
We are involved in a tight, tough battle that probably feels to you like it has gone on for too long. This race has been about a number of issues and you’ve seen some tough tactics.
I write today to remind you what this election is really about. It is about farmers and carpenters; bus drivers and teachers; small business people and moms and dads. It’s about us.
And that’s why I ask you to go vote, and to get as many people to the polls as you can. Please ask your friends and relatives to join you, and ask them to ask others.
The weather isn’t perfect, and I appreciate how much effort is involved. Thank you for your continued support.
With appreciation and hope for the future and for putting government in our hands.—Darrel Aubertine”

The New York State Independent Living Council announced in an e-mailed press release Monday afternoon that it would be closing its operations and laying off staff Friday because it hasn’t had an approved contract with the state or received funding since October.

“We have exhausted our line of credit and believe we have just enough money to keep our basic infrastructure in place,” Christine Zachmeyer, council chairwoman, said in a statement. “It’s shameful that our staff has to pay the price for the failure of the state to process routine paperwork.”

But several hours later, the state Education Department announced that the problem had been settled. The state Comptroller’s Office approved a one-year contract Monday, and the Education Department told the council to expect a check by the end of the week ($98,500 for October, November, December and January), Education Department spokesman Tom Dunn said in a statement.

Dunn said the contract is for one year, rather than the usual three, because the federal Rehabilitation Services Administration has indicated the role of Independent Living Councils in all 50 states will be redrawn. The councils are responsible for developing, monitoring and evaluating a State Plan on Independent Living, which includes efforts to support disability rights advocacy and expand opportunities for youth with disabilities.

The three dozen Centers for Independent Living around the state were not affected by the contract dispute.

    Early weather report from the North Country on this special-election day for a state Senate seat: possibly Republican precipitation.

So far there has been rain in Oswego County and some snow in Jefferson County, Chris McKenna, press secretary to the Republican candidate Will Barclay, reported in a radio interview today.

The hopeful Republican theory is that voters in Oswego County, where Barclay is from, won’t be deterred by some rain from voting, while snow may slice the turnout in Jefferson County (the Watertown area), the stronghold of Democrat Darryl Aubertine.

Every angle is being explored here, because if Aubertine wins, the Republican margin the Senate – a chamber the GOP has controlled for all but one year since 1938 – would dwindle to one seat. The Democrats are expected to try to get at least one GOP senator to change parties if Aubertine is victorious. In a tied chamber, the Democrats would rule, since Democratic Lt. Gov. David Paterson has the tie-breaking vote.

Gov. Eliot Spitzer used another, perhaps less preferable, way to warn against putting the cart before the horse when asked whether Democrat Hillary Clinton should drop out of the race if she doesn’t win primaries in Ohio and Texas. Democrat Barack Obama, also a U.S. senator, has become the clear frontrunner in recent weeks.

“You’re doing an autopsy on a body that’s still alive,” the governor told a scrum of reporters tonight after speaking at a state Conference of Mayors reception in Albany.

“You know, let’s wait. I think that this is a campaign that’s been very much like a Bungee jump. It’s been up and down for both candidates. It has been a tribute to Democracy,” he said.

Spitzer, who has endorsed Clinton, said he intends to vote for her. There’s a long way to go between now and Election Day, he added. Both Clinton and Obama are “superb” candidates who have debated the issues “in a way that has defined an agenda that is significantly different than the agenda I imagine of Sen. (John) McCain, whom we all respect and have enormous regard for …” Spitzer said, referring to the GOP frontrunner in the race.

Former Republican state Sen. Nick Spano was in Albany today for a fundraiser for Sen. Hugh Farley and was asked about whether he will run for the Senate again this year against incumbent Democratic Sen. Andrea Stewart-Cousins.
No decision yet, Spano said, but “I think about it every day of my life about returning to the Senate.”
Spano said the outcome of tomorrow’s special election in the 48th Senate District in the North Country won’t influence his decision, and he said the presidential race without Rudy Giuliani as the GOP nominee wouldn’t affect his ability to run a strong race—that’s if he runs, of course.
“It has to be the right decision, and it has to fit into my life, into my family life and I have to make sure the support is there in Westchester to do this. And that’s what we’re evaluating,” he said.

The day before a special election is to be held to fill a state Senate seat, a good-government group is proposing changing the process of filling open seats.

Citizens’ Union wants to take the selection of the candidates out of the hands of party committees and have primaries held instead – or non-partisan elections that would allow several candidates on the ballot.

“Voters should have a greater say,’’ said Citizens’ Union executive director Dick Dadey.

County party leaders picked Republican Will Barclay and Democrat Darryl Aubertine to run to represent a district that includes Oswego, Jefferson and St. Lawrence counties along Lake Ontario and the Canadian border after incumbent Republican James Wright resigned last month.

Such a bill has been introduced in the Assembly, but it’s not likely to go anywhere, since the political leaders like the current system.

Citizens’ Union and other reform groups also want special elections to fill the statewide offices of comptroller and attorney general. Last year when Comptroller Alan Hevesi was forced to resign after pleading guilty to a felony not long after being elected to a second term, the Legislature picked then-Assemblyman Tom DiNapoli to serve essentially the entire four years Hevesi was supposed to have the job.

In this week’s edition, we focus on how the eyes in Albany are on the North Country. (Sorry, we had some computer problems sending this out on Friday.)

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